The suspicions and concerns keep growing as the repeated attempts to address the reservations go unfruitful. There is a visible sense of deception or some political tricks. This paradox of unaddressed concerns and unaccepted explanations are transforming into a sense of insecurity. People have already started getting certificates of treason for heaving a critical eye on the game-changing corridor.
The debate on the giant economic corridor seems quite polarized these days. There are some for whom anything branded with CPEC is sacred. While on the opposite side are those who have their eyebrows lifted high since the signing of the multibillion-dollar project. In the heart of this polarization, there is a single question; who will benefit the most from CPEC? You may answer at your peril; your answer will simply tag you either as anti-CPEC or pro-CPEC.
We don’t get into this argument and just focus on a single point out of this debate, if there are any benefits for the people of Balochistan, if really yes, then what? The first response we get on this question is; CPEC and Gwadar are inseparable therefore anything good out of the corridor is good for Balochistan. Secondly, the benefits will land in various Specialized Economic Zones where employment opportunities will be created.
Gwadar is the gateway of CPEC and home to the port and thus an important spot on Balochistan’s map. But on the very same map there are some other spots too which have been home to the game-changers of their times. Some 1,200 Km up in the northeast we find Sui. About six decades ago with the development of gas pipeline Sui became the game-changer for the newly born state. That bright spot of Sui lightened up the whole country but what left behind for the people of Balochistan, was a prolonged darkness. Therefore, history suggests, no euphoria for your home being at the center of any game-changer-like thing.
The regional connectivity and clusters of economic activities in various cities will certainly have profound impacts on the socio economic conditions. The region will open up to numerous employment opportunities. And as said by the Chinese ambassador a year back in Quetta, the corridor will “bring an end to unemployment” in Balochistan. Mr. Sun Weidong was there addressing a gathering of tribal elites, investors and people from various parts of life to brighten up their CPEC dreams.
Unemployment is indeed a key issue in Balochistan and an end to it will be a miracle for the people. The issue must be addressed for any initiative to result in socio-economic transformation. But is the issue ‘too big to be solved’ that we look for miracles of a multibillion-dollar project?
According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics there have been around 100,000 people unemployed in Balochistan in 2012-13. The figure was 70,000 in 2010-11 and 60,000 in 2009-10, which shows a striking growth in the number of jobless people. Though these statistics are rough but considering the growth trends and some ground observations we can judge the current scenario. In April last year, as many as 100,000 candidates were reported to have applied to fill just 4,200 small-scale government jobs. This scenario can be witnessed quite frequently nowadays where there are hundreds of applicants for a single vacant position. This pressure in the job market is much higher than what PBS estimates predict.
Now let’s look into the employment opportunities that are assumed to arise along the CPEC.
Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal was recently quoted saying that five to seven Special Economic Zones will be established across the country under CPEC. He said that each province will get at least one of these economic zones. This is contrary to the earlier claims of 27 such zones across the country and seven for Balochistan alone. Gwadar was supposed to have first of these economic zones fully functional by the end of 2017.
According to Chairman Gwadar Port Authority Dostain Jamaldini the port city alone will be able to create about 40,000 jobs. While in a briefing to National Assembly’s Standing Committee in July this year, it was shared that over one million CPEC-related jobs will be created by 2030.
Apart from Gwadar the other potential zones for CPEC benefits include Turbat, Khuzdar, Dera Murad Jamali, Lasbela, Winder and Bostan. These areas have been pinned down to get special attention in the CPEC maneuvers. Even if not turned into Special Economic Zones, the potential economic activities along CPEC will eventually turn these areas into employment hubs. And there will be thousands if not millions of new jobs created.
Ironically, if not all of these areas, Lasbela and Winder (a town in Lasbela district) have been economic centers for long. Lasbela is home to Pakistan’s biggest oil refinery, 1292 MW power station, several cement plants and marble factories. One of world largest ship breaking yard is also located in Gadani town in Lasbela. These alone have generated enough employment opportunities to accommodate the whole jobless population of Balochistan. But even after decades the unemployment and backwardness still haunt the local population.
So, what will the CPEC is going to add up? One may answer; it will connect backward areas of Balochistan up to Kashgar in China. This connectivity is by no means one way; it will eventually open up the opportunities in Balochistan to the bigger unemployment pressure, mostly from Punjab. According to the aforementioned PBS data, during 2012-13 when there were 0.1 million jobless people in Balochistan, the figure was 2.28 million in Punjab. By these data however, it doesn’t seem to be an issue to accommodate this 0.1 million while employing the bigger unemployed population. But there are enough historical references which suggest that this is not going to happen. The local population being so small to fight back has historically been overrun by the merciless brotherhood. Back in 2002 when the construction at Gwadar port was newly started the influx of workers from outside Balochistan and discrimination with locals was eye-opening. The port from its beginning failed to give any hope to the residents of Gwadar, let alone the people from other parts of Balochistan.
Finally let’s forget about all this argument, objections and reservations, just pick the very first and comprehensive logic; CPEC and Gwadar, so as Balochistan, are inseparable, therefore anything good out of CPEC would also be good for the locals. For an instant, if we start believing this narrative, then the question is, why do we need a $46 billion game-changer to solve the unemployment issue of Balochistan?
A population with no clean water to drink, no basic healthcare and education, and frustratingly unsuccessful job hunt, needs some small initiatives before embracing any game-changer. The issues are of basic nature and could have been solved with available resources, not through multibillion dollar game-changers. When public demands of clean water, healthcare and education are responded with promises of a $46 billion corridor they find it hard to swallow.
In the pursuit of their well-being the people of Balochistan have got so many mega projects and game-changers. There would have been no reason to oppose such mega projects if they were combined with some micro level initiatives. There is a serious need for some ground making efforts before any giant project starts bearing its unseen fruits. Without making proper ground any mega initiative, sincere or exploitive, is bound to meet with apprehensions and concerns. Therefore, the focus needs to be shifted towards ground making efforts instead of making hollow promises, and silencing the opposition voices.
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